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Tuesday, October 28, 2014

CLIMATE DEAL –GLOBAL AGREEMENT

CLIMATE DEAL –GLOBAL AGREEMENT
The bold proposals that form the European Union’s (EU) new climate deal set the tone for the best bargain for a global agreement in Paris next year. The decision to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 is ambitious in comparison with the 8 per cent reductions on a 1990 baseline under the Kyoto Protocol. The EU was the lone participant from among the industrialised nations. Last week’s move follows through on the offer made at the 2013 Warsaw United Nations Conference on Climate Change where countries agreed to make voluntary GHG emissions curbs in a post-Kyoto scenario. The mainstay of the overall EU strategy would be the much-touted emissions trading system (ETS). It currently covers over 11,000 power and industrial plants and airlines and about 45 per cent of the total GHG emissions within the bloc. Sectors within the ETS would contribute 43 per cent reductions and those outside 30 per cent by 2030. Other decisions include non-binding commitments to raise the share of renewable sources to 27 per cent in the total energy consumption and an equal proportion to the deployment of energy efficient technologies. The EU deal is subject to similar commitments that may be made by other countries at the Paris summit next year.
With some national capitals from Poland to Portugal pleading special circumstances and others pushing to expand caps into new sectors, the deal was significant for the distance covered than what remains to be done. The European Trade Union Confederation, which represents about 60 million workers, has criticised the targets as too low, that potentially could take away a million jobs created in a low-carbon economy. At the same time, with an eye on the 2015 climate summit, the Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group backed by over 50 companies representing 4.5 million employees worldwide have advocated a robust EU climate and energy policy. This is a sign of convergence of interest between industry and employee bodies that would be crucial to clinch a global pact in Paris. The record of the Kyoto Protocol shows that countries with a pre-existing high technology base did not achieve the highest emissions reductions, perhaps in view of their lock-in effects. It was the transitional economies of the states of the former Soviet Union that registered impressive reductions. Here may be a lesson for emerging economies such as India to make strategic decisions with an eye on opportunities for the future. The failure of the Copenhagen 2009 summit would undoubtedly temper expectations among EU leaders about a global deal. But Washington has travelled some distance since then and climate sceptics are on the back foot these days. There is thus real potential for progress.
Europe has committed to transfer clean technology to developing countries in the form of Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund (GEEREF), a global risk capital fund that will use public money to marshal private investment in energy efficient and renewable projects in developing countries . In order to achieve the target of reducing EU domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 40% in 2030, the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System are planning to reduce their emissions by 43% compared to 2005. Emissions from sectors outside the EU ETS would have to cut by 30% below the 2005 level. This will be translated into Member State targets. Then by increasing the share of renewable energy to 27% of the EU's energy consumption by 2030, by a 30% energy savings target for 2030 through energy efficiency and a 43% greenhouse reduction target in 2030 for the ETS are not only innovative but courageous initiatives to combat climate change. India should learn from this.The target of achieving 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is rather idealistic in the sense that almost all countries, including the developing ones, are development hungry which means a crazy use of technology, mindless exploitation of natural resources resulting in more and more greenhouse gas. Under such prevailing circumsta- nces, the planet cannot enjoy both the worlds at the same time. If the developed countries are really serious about accepting the challenge of greenhouse gas emissions, they will have to set realistic and short term targets and duly check if the set cut has been accompli shed. Small steps can lead to the lofty ambition of 40 per cent reduction. If it is not done, alternative ways can be searched for. A long duration target means deliberately and intentionally keeping the problem on hold for time being. It does not demonstrate sincerity and real concern of nations towards climate changes.
In India, population is a big issue. Combine it with the demand and malpractices in the coal department, we have a gruesome situation. Current power plants are not running, banks are going gaga. In such a time, why anyone would want to invest in the renewable sources. The only solution the government has is to first kick start the current power situation and then invite clean energy after a few years when companies have cash surplus and FDI becomes strong. Not that it is not growing as of now, but the current growth rate of renewable energy production is too low as compared to the demands.When each ton of oil/petroleum is burned, over 8000 KWH energy in the form of heat are spewed into the atmosphere, apart from other obnoxious chemicals/smoke. The USA spews about 19,760,000,000 KWH/day; China 10,400,000,000 KWH/day; Japan 4,680,000,000 KWH/day; India 3,640,000,000. Just four major oil using nations spew heat 24x7x365 @ 1,603,333 MWe power equivalent. This is about one-third of the world total. All protocols and summits seem to gloss over this most important fact and no action is being planned to reduce this heat generation that gets trapped withing the world's atmosphere. The main contributors are aircraft, automobiles and petroleum based power plants. Unless the world reduces petroleum consumption, drastically, any attempt to talk about Greenhouse gas reduction to reduce impacts of climate change will not have any meaning. How do we reduce this without reducing dependence on oil for transportation?
Few people know that the European agreement that was just made has an escape clause. If other major emitters such as the United States do not make similar commitments in Paris in 2015, the EU will return to the 20 percent target. It is all but certain that in 2015 the Republicans will control both the U.S. Congress and Senate. In addition, all polls show that Americans are less concerned about climate change than any other issue. The United States will not make a similar commitment and the EU will invoke the escape clause.Few people know that the European agreement that was just made has an escape clause. If other major emitters such as the United States do not make similar commitments in Paris in 2015, the EU will return to the 20 percent target. It is all but certain that in 2015 the Republicans will control both the U.S. Congress and Senate. In addition, all polls show that Americans are less concerned about climate change than any other issue. The United States will not make a similar commitment and the EU will invoke the escape clause.

Prof. John Kurakar


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